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Case Examples of Our Work in Market Assessment and Forecasting
Assessment of Market Potential and Resource Requirements: Health Advances prepared a complete market opportunity assessment and preliminary commercialization plan for an innovative product used for treating chronic pain. Extensive interviews with pain specialists, surgeons, internal medicine physicians and other providers, interviews with reimbursement specialists, and a comprehensive competitive analysis all contributed to an integrated analysis of how the product would be positioned, its forecasted market potential, and the resources that would be required to drive market penetration.

Market Analysis and Risk-Adjusted Financial Forecast: A Health Advances team provided a detailed market analysis and product concept refinement for a novel, non-protease inhibitor for management of HIV patients. The team spoke with many of the leading viral disease specialists in the US, Europe, and Japan to map current disease management practices, estimated potential patient populations, determine dosing and pricing estimates, and identify red flags in the product concept for each of the different geographies. In addition, the Health Advances team developed profiles of the relevant competitors and potential partners, and forecasted potential costs and revenues in a risk-adjusted NPV model.

Market Segmentation and Revenue Forecast: A client with a novel diabetes treatment in the midst of licensing negotiations engaged Health Advances to develop a detailed revenue forecast and product positioning strategy. This novel therapeutic was targeted at the Type 2 market, but would require a subcutaneous or intramuscular injection, potentially creating significant barriers to adoption. The Health Advances team spent a significant amount of time mapping distinct patient populations that would consider this therapeutic option.

Revenue Forecast with Sensitivity Analysis: The Health Advances team prepared a detailed five-year US revenue projection for a phase III oncology drug, including projections for uptake of the drug for various lines of therapy: from salvage to first-line and monotherapy versus combination therapy. The analysis included building a revenue model using inputs from qualitative in-depth interviews followed by a large quantitative survey. Health Advances completed statistical analysis of the quantitative survey and performed sensitivity analyses on the revenue projections for a number of potential factors that could influence the uptake of the drug, including what labeling would be approved and whether there would be a black box warning required on the label.

Assessment of Likely Adoption using Patient Survey: For an Israeli company moving into the US market, Health Advances developed and administered a large survey of people with a particular vision problem, seeking volunteers for clinical trials to assess the treatment's effect. Health Advances identified, screened and surveyed over 45 patients regarding their likelihood to try the new treatment for their vision problem. Health Advances documented patients' level of satisfaction/dissatisfaction with past or current treatments, the degree to which the vision problem impacted their daily lives and their likelihood to pay out-of-pocket for this novel treatment.

Assessment of Market Potential: Health Advances assessed the market for cord blood banking for a private equity company considering acquisitions and/or roll up in this area. Primary work streams included a detailed evaluation of the present and future scientific and clinical backing for this industry, based on KOL interviews and secondary research; qualitative physician (OB) and patient interviews to evaluate attitudes towards and demand for the product; and a quantitative physician survey to test and refine hypotheses generated by the qualitative interviews.

Conjoint Study: Health Advances completed a choice-based conjoint study, complemented by a Van Westendorp analysis, to assist a client with several critical strategic decisions, including what business model to use to maximize revenues for a novel device-based treatment for severe acne, what type(s) of physicians besides dermatologists might be interested in participating in this business model and treating severe acne patients, as well as how to price the product or service to maximize revenues. The conjoint study surveyed both a variety of physicians and patients.
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